Fiscal Challenges Ahead for Mexico: Navigating Economic Uncertainty

Wrapped Up:

  • Mexico is facing a set of fiscal challenges following the recent presidential election.
  • The new administration must address widening fiscal deficits, rising social spending, and potential policy reforms.
  • Comprehensive fiscal reform and consolidation efforts will be necessary to tide the incoming economic uncertainty.

Fiscal Pressure Following the Mexican Election

As Mexico transitions to a new administration under President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, the country faces a complex array of fiscal challenges that will require careful navigation. The incoming government must address widening fiscal deficits, rising social spending, and the potential impact of proposed policy reforms on the country’s fiscal accounts.

The Ministry of Finance estimates a public deficit of 5.9% of GDP in 2024, the highest in over three decades. This development is particularly concerning, as it suggests that the fiscal discipline demonstrated in the early years of President López Obrador’s administration may be waning. There are worries that wider deficits could persist, particularly if efforts to increase tax revenue are postponed.

Recent policy developments have exacerbated the fiscal pressure. The proposed pension reform, which promises that retirees will receive 100% of their last salary (up to an amount equivalent to the average salary registered with the IMSS), is projected to increase fiscal expenditures. Additionally, the new legislation stating that the increase in the minimum wage must be at least equal to the annual inflation rate could further strain the country’s fiscal accounts.


Sheinbaum’s Plans

President-elect Sheinbaum has also announced plans to introduce universal scholarships for public school students from kindergarten to high school, as well as pensions for women aged 60-64. These initiatives, while laudable in their social objectives, could potentially add to the fiscal burden if not accompanied by comprehensive revenue-raising measures.

The incoming administration’s approach to these fiscal challenges will be closely watched by markets, rating agencies, and international observers. The 2025 budget proposal, set to be released in November, will provide crucial insights into the new government’s willingness to implement fiscal consolidation measures.

Beyond the fiscal arena, the changes in Mexico’s institutional landscape, such as the upcoming nomination of a new Supreme Court justice and the appointment of a deputy governor for Banxico’s board, will also be closely scrutinized. Preserving the integrity and independence of these institutions will be crucial in maintaining investor confidence and safeguarding the country’s economic stability.

As the US presidential election nears, Mexico may find itself in the spotlight, with immigration and trade issues potentially being cast in a negative light. This rhetoric could trigger further volatility in Mexican assets, which, while likely temporary, underscores the need for the incoming administration to adopt a proactive and pragmatic approach to engaging with its northern neighbor.

Looking to the Future

Despite these challenges, the Mexican economy maintains positive secular tailwinds, such as the ongoing trend of nearshoring. The extent to which the Sheinbaum government can capitalize on these opportunities will be a key determinant of the country’s long-term economic trajectory.

In the fixed-income space, institutional erosion concerns and the challenging fiscal outlook may put pressure on sovereign ratings and valuations, underscoring the importance of comprehensive fiscal reform and consolidation efforts. Conversely, large corporations with significant overseas operations and proven track records in navigating economic cycles may be better positioned to mitigate the underlying sovereign risk.

In the equity markets, the earnings growth prospects for Mexican stocks remain resilient, averaging more than 21% annually in 2024 and 2025. However, valuations will continue to be closely monitored, as the new administration’s policy decisions and their impact on the fiscal and institutional landscape will be key factors in determining the long-term performance of the Mexican equity market.

As Mexico embarks on this new chapter, the incoming administration faces a complex set of fiscal and economic challenges. Navigating these obstacles will require a delicate balance of fiscal discipline, institutional strengthening, and a willingness to implement strategic policy reforms. The road ahead may be turbulent, but the opportunities for growth and prosperity remain within reach for Mexico, provided the new government can rise to the occasion and chart a course that prioritizes fiscal sustainability and economic resilience.


These are the views of the Author only. It is not Investment Advice or a Recommendation from Gather International Limited or its affiliates.

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